A Statistical modellingapproaches on tidal analysis and  forecasting

Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah

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Type :	article
Subject :	Q Science (General)
Main Author :	Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah
Additional Authors :	Hazrina Tajudin Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin Norazman Arbin Siti Hawa Mohd Yusof
Title :	A Statistical modellingapproaches on tidal analysis and forecasting

Place of Production :	Tanjong Malim
Publisher :	Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
Year of Publication :	2020
Corporate Name :	Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris

Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris

Increase in the number of population in the lowelevation coastal zone has increase the importanceto reduce the risk of coastal and nuisance flooding, especially during high tide. This study attempts to generate forecast of high tide data using several statistical approaches such as seasonal naive model, Holt-Winter, Theta method and seasonal autoregressive and moving average method. Based on the decomposition plot using additive components of the time series, there are seasonal components in each data sets and increasing trend can be observed at Permatang Sedepa and Bagan Datuk, while decline follows by slowly increasing trend can be seen at Pelabuhan Klang station.Among all methods applied to the time series data,Theta method gives the lowest error for Pelabuhan and Permatang Sedepa with accuracy of 0.0403 and 0.0457 respectively, while Holt-Winter method gives the lowest error for high tide data at Bagan Datuk with accuracy of 0.0456. Malaccastraits serves various purposes including shipping, especially at Pelabuhan Klang, High number of activities in the area had caused unexpected outcome such as land subsidence, coastal erosion,deterioration of natural and man-made barrier, floods and inundation of land which indirectlyinfluences the physical of the port.

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