UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
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Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris |
Tujuan utama kajian ini dijalankan adalah untuk menentukan hubungan dinamik
antara pemboleh ubah interaksi dan perdagangan antarabangsa dalam dua model yang
berbeza (Model Eksport dan Model Import) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di
Malaysia dalam jangka masa panjang dan jangka masa pendek. Bagi mengesan
kewujudan hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek antara pemboleh ubah
endogenous dan eksogenous, kajian ini telah mengaplikasikan kaedah Model Vektor
Pembetulan Ralat (VECM). Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa perdagangan
antarabangsa memberi impak yang positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi negara.
Dapatan kajian juga menunjukkan wujud hubungan jangka pendek antara pemboleh
ubah interaksi eksport (Model Eksport) dan interaksi import (Model Import) terhadap
pertumbuhan ekonomi. Selain itu, pemboleh ubah ralat juga menunjukkan nilai yang
signifikan dalam jangka panjang bagi Model Eksport ( ECTX ? = -5.3741) dan Model
Import ( ECTM ? = -0.0001). Kesimpulannya, dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa
wujud hubungan dua hala antara pemboleh ubah interaksi dengan pertumbuhan
ekonomi dalam jangka masa panjang dan jangka masa pendek. Implikasi kajian
menunjukkan bahawa perdagangan antarabangsa merupakan pemboleh ubah pemacu
terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Justeru itu, pengaruh interaksi antara perdagangan
antarabangsa dengan kadar pertukaran asing perlu diambil kira secara serentak dalam
penggubalan dasar bagi memperkuatkan daya saing perdagangan di peringkat
antarabangsa dan sekaligus menggalakkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih pesat di
masa akan datang. |
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