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Type :thesis
Subject :QA Mathematics
Main Author :Faiz Zulkifli
Title :Pembangunan model regresi ordinal teori respons item teguh dalam meramal prestasi gred peperiksaan akhir pelajar
Place of Production :Tanjong Malim
Publisher :Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
Year of Publication :2021
Corporate Name :Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
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Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
Kajian ini bertujuan membangunkan model regresi ordinal teori respons item (TRI) teguh dalam meramal prestasi gred peperiksaan akhir pelajar. Kaedah pembangunan model adalah berasaskan model regresi ordinal iaitu model ganjil kumulatif (MGK) dan analisis literatur bersistematik. MGK diubah suai dengan menerapkan TRI dan kaedah teguh penganggar-M (pemberat Huber dan Tukey Bisquare). Sampel kajian terdiri daripada 326 orang pelajar dari salah sebuah universiti awam di Malaysia yang mendaftar kursus berkaitan STEM. Sementara enam orang pakar dalam bidang statistik terlibat bagi mengesahkan kualiti sampel item soalan yang digunakan. Data kajian dianalisis menggunakan analisis deskriptif, indeks tahap persetujuan Cohen Kappa, analisis faktor, analisis pengukuran Rasch, plot diagnostik dan penyuaian model. Model yang dibangunkan diuji kebagusannya terhadap data sebenar dan simulasi. Simulasi Monte Carlo dijalankan berdasarkan faktor simulasi iaitu saiz sampel, kombinasi tahap kesukaran, peratus pencemaran dan sisihan piawai data pencilan yang melibatkan ukuran bias, ralat punca min kuasa dua, pekali penentuan dan statistik Lipsitz. Dapatan kajian mendapati model yang menerapkan TRI dimensi berbilang memberikan hasil penyuaian lebih baik berbanding model asas yang mana statistik Lipsitz bagi MGK-TRI (522.78) adalah kurang daripada MGK (549.94). Manakala, penganggar-M dengan pemberat Tukey Bisquare menunjukkan prestasi keteguhan lebih baik berbanding pemberat Huber dan penganggar kebolehjadian maksimum. Kesimpulannya, kajian ini berjaya membangunkan model ramalan prestasi gred peperiksaan akhir pelajar yang menerapkan TRI dan kaedah teguh dalam mengatasi masalah multikolinearan dan pengaruh data pencilan pada model regresi ordinal. Model yang dihasilkan memberikan implikasi dari segi teoritikal, metodologi dan sumbangan kepada pihak-pihak berkepentingan dalam statistik dan pendidikan, Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi Malaysia, universiti dan industri dalam meramal prestasi gred peperiksaan akhir pelajar.

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