UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
|
|
Total records found : 1 |
Simplified search suggestions : Salaudeen Abdulwaheed Adebayo |
1 | 2023 article | Forecasting sugar price fluctuation In Malaysia using Geometric Brownian Motion Modelling Salaudeen Abdulwaheed Adebayo A mathematical model known as Geometric Brownian motion has proven to be an effective tool that can be deployed to forecast the price of goods in the future due to the presence of random terms, which represent the stochastic or random fluctuation of prices over a given period of time. The success of this model revolves around the estimation of its governing parameters. To efficiently predict the price of goods, using the Geometric Brownian Motion model (GBM), one needs to determine the value of returns and use the calculated returns to estimate the value of drift as well as volatility. This research used the value of volatility and drift terms obtained from real data of sugar in the months under review. The method has shown to be very reliable in capturing the intelligent trend in the price of sugar in Malaysia. The model was able to stimulate the pattern of the predicted price that shares a great resemblance to the actual price of sugar. The result obtained is very encouraging and pla..... 61 hits |