Analyzing the determinants of Malaysian trade balance from 1975 to 2023: an ARDL approach

Muhammad Syahmi Sulaiman

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Type :	Final Year Project
Subject :	HG Finance
Main Author :	Muhammad Syahmi Sulaiman
Title :	Analyzing the determinants of Malaysian trade balance from 1975 to 2023: an ARDL approach
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Place of Production :	Tanjong Malim
Publisher :	Fakulti Pengurusan dan Ekonomi
Year of Publication :	2025
Corporate Name :	Perpustakaan Tuanku Bainun
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Abstract : Perpustakaan Tuanku Bainun

The aim for this research is to investigate the short-run dynamic and long-run relationship between the independent variables (EXCR, GDP, and BMGR) and dependent variable (TB), and to identify which independent variable (EXCR, GDP, or BMGR) has the most significant effect on the dependent variable (TB), by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) as the research_s approach. The idea that trade balance in Malaysia is not only affected by EXCR, but also by GDP and BMGR. Using the data from Malaysia, covering the years 1975 to 2023, the results indicate that EXCR, GDP, and BMGR significantly influence the trade balance, both in the short and long run. EXCR and GDP play pivotal roles, with the former directly affecting trade competitiveness and the latter shaping overall economic performance. Meanwhile, BMGR contributes to the financial environment impacting trade. This research also provides valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance Malaysia_s economic and trade stability.

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