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UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
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| Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris |
| This study aimed to develop the stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model to estimate the
relative risk for leptospirosis mapping specifically for children and adults in Malaysia.
This study used model development as it research design. The methodology of this study took into
account the transmission of leptospirosis in the stochastic SIR-SI model (S=susceptible,
I=infected, R=recovered for human populations and S=susceptible, I=infected for
vector populations). In this study, the existing SIR-SI model was improvised and
adapted to the leptospirosis transmission. Then, the model was expended to form an alternative
SIR-SI Age-Structured model specifically for children and adults to estimate the relative risk of
leptospirosis for these populations in Malaysia. The data used in this study were weekly data from
epidemiology week 1 to epidemiology week 52 for the year 2015 for all sixteen states in Malaysia.
The results of the analysis based on the age structured model were also compared with the existing
models to identify the better model for estimating relative risk. For the children group, the
results showed that children in Kelantan have the highest risk of contracting leptospirosis
while the children in Labuan have the lowest risk of contracting the disease. Similarly, adults
in Kelantan and Labuan also possessed the highest and lowest risk of contracting
leptospirosis, respectively. As a conclusion, the new model was better as compared to other
existing models in estimating relative risk for leptospirosis because it considered
important elements such as the number of population, age group and the transmission process of the
disease. This model also generates leptospirosis risk map for children and adults in
Malaysia. In implication, the proposed model and generated risk maps can be practically applied
towards the control of leptospirosis by government agencies, medical officers and authorities as
well as increasing the awareness of local communities towards the high-low
risk areas of leptospirosis.
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| References |
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APPENDIX A: KNOWLEDGE DISSEMINATION
A) Conference
(1) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017), Standardized morbidity ratio for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia. 4?? International Postgraduate Conference on Science and Mathematics 2016, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Oral Presentation Session.
(2) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017), Leptospirosis Disease Mapping with Standardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-Gamma Model: An Analysis of Leptospirosis Disease in Kelantan, Malaysia. 1?? International Conference on Applied & Industrial Mathematics 2017, Vistana Kuantan City Centre, Oral Presentation Session.
B) Publication
(1) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017). Standardized morbidity ratio for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2006, p. 20006). http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4983861
(2) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017), Leptospirosis Disease Mapping with Standardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-Gamma Model: An Analysis of Leptospirosis Disease in Kelantan, Malaysia. Journal if Physics: Conference Series, 2017
(3) Nor Azah Samat & Aznida Che Awang (2018), The Discrete Time-Space SIR-SI Age-Structured Model for Leptospirosis. SCIEMATIC2018
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