UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
Start | FAQ | About
Menu Icon

QR Code Link :

Type :thesis
Subject :RC Internal medicine
Main Author :Aznida Che Awang
Title :The development of stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia
Place of Production :Tanjong Malim
Publisher :Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
Year of Publication :2018
Corporate Name :Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
PDF Guest :Click to view PDF file

Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
This study aimed to develop the stochastic SIR-SI Age-Structured model to estimate the relative  risk  for leptospirosis  mapping specifically for  children  and  adults  in  Malaysia.  This study used model development as it research design. The methodology of this study took  into   account  the  transmission  of  leptospirosis  in  the  stochastic  SIR-SI  model (S=susceptible,    I=infected,   R=recovered   for   human   populations   and   S=susceptible, I=infected   for    vector   populations).   In   this   study,   the   existing   SIR-SI   model   was improvised and  adapted to the leptospirosis transmission. Then, the model was expended to form an alternative  SIR-SI Age-Structured model specifically for children and adults to estimate the relative risk of  leptospirosis for these populations in Malaysia. The data used in this study were weekly data from  epidemiology week 1 to epidemiology week 52 for the year 2015 for all sixteen states in Malaysia.  The results of the analysis based on the age structured model were also compared with the existing  models to identify the better model for estimating relative risk. For the children group, the  results showed that children in  Kelantan  have  the  highest  risk  of  contracting  leptospirosis   while  the  children  in Labuan have the lowest risk of contracting the disease. Similarly, adults  in Kelantan and Labuan   also   possessed   the   highest   and   lowest   risk   of   contracting    leptospirosis, respectively. As a  conclusion, the new model was better as compared to  other  existing models  in  estimating  relative  risk  for  leptospirosis  because  it  considered   important elements such as the number of population, age group and the transmission process of the  disease.  This  model  also  generates  leptospirosis  risk  map  for  children  and  adults  in  Malaysia.  In implication, the proposed model and generated risk maps can be practically applied  towards the control of leptospirosis by government agencies, medical officers and authorities as  well as increasing the awareness of local communities towards the high-low risk areas of leptospirosis.  

References

Aznida  Che  Awang  &  Nor  Azah  Samat.  (2017).  Standardized  Morbidity  Ratio  for 

Leptospirosis Mapping in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2006, p. 20006).

 

Assimina,  Z.  &  Fotoula,  B.  (2008).    Leptospirosis:  Epidemiology  and  Preventive Measures. 

Health Science Journal.  2(2): 75-82

 

Barreto, M. L. (2006). Infectious Diseases Epidemiology. Journal of Epidemiology & Community 

Health, 60(3), 192–195.

 

Benacer,  D.,  Kwai,  L.  T.,  Khebir  Verasahib,  Galloway,  R.  L.,  Hartskeerl,  R.  A., Lewis,  

J.  W.,  &  Siti  Nursheena  Mohd  Zain.  (2016).  Human  Leptospirosis  in Malaysia. Asia Pacific 

Journal of Public Health, 28(4), 290–302.

 

Benacer,  D.,  Siti  Nursheena  Mohd  Zain,  Shin,  Z.  S.,  Mohd  Khairul  Nizam  Mohd Khalid,  

Galloway,  R.  L.,  Sourls,  M.,  &  Kwai,  L.  T.  (2016).  Determination  of Leptospira 

Borgpetersenii Serovar Javanica and Leptospira Interrogans Serovar Bataviae  as  the  Persistent  

Leptospira  Serovars  Circulating  in  the  Urban  Rat Populations in Peninsular Malaysia. 

Parasites & Vectors, 9(1)-117.

 

 

Davis,  S.,  Calvet,  E.,  Leirs,  H.  (2005).  Fluctuation  Rodent  Populations  and  Risk  to 

Human from Rodent-borne Zoonoses. Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis, 5(4), 305-314

 

 

Disease  Control  Division.  (2011).,  Guidelines  For  The  Diagnosis,  Management, Prevention   

And   Control   Of   Leptospirosis   In   Malaysia.   Retrieved   from 

http://www.moh.gov.my/images/gallery/Garispanduan/GL_Leptospirosis%20201 1.pdf.

 

 

Faine,   S.   (1982).   Guidelines   For   The   Control   of   Leptospirosis,   World   Health 

Organization Melbourne, Australia.  WHO Offset Publication No.67.

 

Gancheva, G. I. (2017) Comparative Analysis of Pediatric and Adult Leptospirosis in Pleven Region, 

Bulgaria. Science Journal of Clinical Medicine. Vol. 6, No. 5, 2017, pp. 91-97. doi: 

10.11648/j.sjcm.20170605.16

 

Glickman,  M.  E.,  &  Dyk,  D.  A.  Van.  (n.d.).  Basic  Bayesian  Methods.  Method  in Molecular 

Biology. Vol. 404, pp. 319–338.

 

 

Gompf, S. G., Velez, A. P., & Green-McKenzie, J. (2017). Leptospirosis Treatment & Management.      

Medscape, Retrieved from http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/220563-treatment

 

Gordon  Smith,  C.  E.,  Turner,  L.  H.,  Harrisson,  J.  L.,  &  Broom,  J.  (1961).  Animal

leptospirosis in Malaya. WHO Chronicle, 15, 343–5.

 

 

Guerrier, G., Hie, P., Gourinat, A. C., Huguon, E., Polfrit, Y., Goarant, C., Missotte, I. (2013). 

Association  between  Age  and  Severity  to  Leptospirosis  in  Children.  PLoS  Neglected 

Tropical Diseases, 7(9), 5–9.

 

Helmersson,  J.  (2012).  Mathematical  Modeling  of  Dengue  -  Temperature  Effect  on Vectorial 

Capacity. Master thesis, Umea University, Sweden.

 

Holt,  J.,  Davis,  S.,  &  Leirs,  H.  (2006).  A  model  of  Leptospirosis  infection  in  an 

African rodent to determine risk to humans: seasonal fluctuations and the impact of         rodent  

       control.          Acta         Tropica,         99(2–3),         218–25. 

doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2006.08.003

 

Ijlal Mohd Diah. (2016). Relative Risk Estimation of Tuberculosis with Standardized Morbidity Ratio 

in Malaysia. Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics. ISSN 0973-1768, 12(5), 4011–4019.

 

 

Ijlal  Mohd  Diah,  Nazrina  Aziz,  Nazihah  Ahmad  &  Maznah  Mat  Kasim.  (2016). Tuberculosis   

Disease   Mapping   with   Stochastic   Equations.   IACE’   2016- Proceeding of the 3rd Innovation 

and Analytics Conference & Exhibition, 77-82.

 

Ijlal  Mohd  Diah,  Nazrina  Aziz  &  Nazihah.  (2016).  Tuberculosis  Disease  Mapping with  

Poisson-Gamma  Model  in  Malaysia.pdf.  Research  Journal  of  Applied Sciences, 11, 882-825.

 

 

Keeling,  M.J.   and  Rohani,  P.  (2007).  Modelling  infectious  disease  in  humans  and 

animals. Princeton University Press, New Jersey United States.

 

Kretzschmar  M.,  Wallinga  J.  (2009)  Mathematical  Models  in  Infectious  Disease Epidemiology. 

Modern Infectious Disease Epidemiology, 209-221.

 

Lawson, A.B. (2001). Tutorial in biostatistic: disease map reconstruction, Statistics in Medicine, 

20, pp. 2183-2204.

 

 

Lawson, A.B., Browne, W.J. and Vidal Rodeiro, C.L. (2003). Disease mapping with WinBUGS  and  

MLwiN.  Statistics  in  Practise.  Chicster:  John  Wiley  &  Sons, Ltd.

 

 

Lawson, A.B. (2006). Statistical Methods in spatial epidemiology. Wet Sussex, UK:

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

 

Lau,  C.  L.,  Smythe,  L.  D.,  Craig,  S.  B.,  &  Weinstein,  P.  (2010).  Climate  change,

flooding,  urbanisation  and  leptospirosis:  Fuelling  the  fire?  Transactions  of  the Royal    

Society    of    Tropical    Medicine    and    Hygiene,    104(10),    631–638. 

http://doi.org/10.1016/j.trstmh.2010.07.002

 

 

Lau,  C.  L.,  Clements,  A.  C.  a,  Skelly,  C.,  Dobson,  A.  J.,  Smythe,  L.  D.,  &  

Weinstein,  P. (2012).   Leptospirosis   in   American   Samoa--estimating   and   mapping   risk   

using environmental      data.      PLoS      Neglected      Tropical      Diseases,      6(5),     

 e1669. http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0001669

 

 

Leptospirosis Information Center. (2017). Issues with children and infants.  Retrieved from 

http://www.leptospirosis.org/

 

Lim,  J.  K.,  Murugaiyah,  V.  A.,  Ramli,  A.,  Abdul  Rahman,  H.,  Mohamed,  N., Shamsudin, N., 

& Tan, J. C. (2011). A Case Study: Leptospirosis in Malaysia. Retrieved from 

http://www.webmedcentral.com

 

 

Madhu, S., & Aparna, Y. (2008). Leptospirosis: Epidemiology, diagnosis and control.

J Infect Dis Antimicrob Agents. 25(4): 93-101.

 

 

Malaysia   Meteorological   Department,   Monsoon   Season   in   Malaysia.   (2015).

Retrieved 13 August 2015, from  http://www. met.gov.my

 

 

Meza, J.L. (2003). Empirical Bayes estimation smoothing of relative risks in disease mapping. 

Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 112.pp. 43-62.

 

 

Ministry   of   Health   Malaysia.   (2015).   Epidemiology   and   Current   Situation   of 

Leptospirosis                in                Malaysia.                Retrieved                

from http://jkt.kpkt.gov.my/resources/index/pdf/Persidangan_2015/persidangan%20 

kesihatan/Leptospirosis_in_Malaysia.pdf

 

 

Miller,  D.  A.,  Wilson,  M.  A.  and  Beran,  G.  W.  (1991).  Relationships  between prevalence  

of  Leptospira  interrogans  in  cattle,  and  regional,  climatic,  and seasonal factors. American 

Journal of Veterinary Research.52: 1766-1768.

 

 

Mohamed-Hassan,  S.  N.,  Bahaman,  A.  R.,  Mutalib,  A.  R.,  &  Khairani-Bejo,  S. (2010). 

Serological prevalence of leptospiral infection in wild rats at the national service  training  

centres  in  Kelantan  and  Terengganu.  Tropical  Biomedicine,

27(1), 30–32. http://doi.org/10.5540/tema.2008.09.01.0155

 

 

Nor Azah  Samat  & Syafiqah  Husna Mohd  Imam  Ma’arof.  (2013).  Dengue  Disease

Mapping  with  Standardized  Morbidity  Ratio  and  Poisson-gamma  Model?:  An Analysis  of  Dengue 

 Disease  in  Perak,  Malaysia.  World  Academy  of  Science, Engineering    and    Technology    

International    Journal    of    Mathematical, Computational Science and Engineering.  80(3), 

571-575.

 

 

Nor Azah  Samat,  & Percy,  D.  F.  (2012).  Vector-borne  Infectious  Disease  Mapping with  

Stochastic  Difference  Equations:  an  Analysis  of  Dengue  Disease  in Malaysia, Journal of 

Applied Statistics. doi:10.1080/02664763.2012.700450

 

 

Nor Azah  Samat.  (2012).  Mathematical  Model  for  Vector-Borne  Infectious  Disease Mapping  

with  Application  to  Dengue  Disease  in  Malaysia.  PhD  thesis, University of Salford, 

Manchaster, UK.

 

 

Nor  Azah  Samat  &  Syafiqah  Husna  Mohd  Imam  Ma’arof.  (2016).  Relative  risk estimation for 

malaria disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model in Malaysia.              AIP              

Conference              Proceedings,              1782.

http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4966104

 

 

Perez,  O.  P.,  Toledo  Vila,  C.  H.,  Vidal  Garcia,  I.,  &  Rodriguez  Avila,  I.  (1998). 

Leptospirosis mortality in Cuba: 1987-1993. Spanish in the Revista Cubana de Medicina Tropical. 

Vol. 50, No. 1, 1998, pp. 61-65.

 

Pimental,  D.  (2007).  Environmental  and  Economic  Costs  of  Vertebrate  Species

Invasions Into the United States. Managing Vertebrate Invasive Species, 1–8.

 

 

Pongsumpun,  P.,  Manmai,  T.,  &  Kongnuy,  R.  (2008).  Age  Structural  Transmission Model  For  

Leptospirosis.  ISBME  2008-The  3??  International  Symposium  on Biomedical Engineering, 411–416.

 

 

Pongsumpun, P. (2012). Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Leptospirosis in Juvennile  and  

Adults  Humans.  World  Academy  of  Science,  Engineering  and Technology, 72, 266–271.

 

 

Pongsumpun,  P.  (2014).  Leptospirosis  Transmission  Model  with  the  Gender  of Human   and   

Season   in   Thailand.   Journal   of   Basic   and   Applied   Scientific

Research, 4(1), 245–256.

 

Pui, C. F., Bilung, L. M., Apun, K., & Su’ut, L. (2017). Diversity of Leptospira spp. in  Rats  and 

 Environment  from  Urban  Areas  of  Sarawak,  Malaysia.  Journal  of Tropical Medicine, 2017, 

1–8. http://doi.org/10.1155/2017/3760674

 

 

Syabirah  Md  Ali  &  Nor  Azah  Samat.  (2015).  Relative  Risk  Estimation  for  the Epidemiology 

of Hepatitis B in Malaysia: An Analysis Based on SMR Method and Poisson- Gamma Model. Journal of 

Science, Mathematic and Technology- EDUCATEM, 2(1), 61–68.

 

 

Simon, A. K., Hollander, G. A., & McMichael, A. (2015). Evolution of the immune system  in  humans  

from  infancy  to  old  age.  Proc  Biol  Sci,  282(1821),  pii: 20143085. 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.3085

 

 

Siettos,  C.  I.,  &  Russo,  L.  (2013).  Mathematical  modeling  of  infectious  disease 

dynamics. Virulence, 4(4), 295–306.

 

 

Triampo, W., Baowan, D., Tang, I. M., Nuttavut, N., & Doungchawee, G. (2006). A Simple   

Deterministic   Model   for   the   Spread   of   Leptospirosis   in   Thailand. International 

Journal of Biological and Life Sciences, 2(1), 22–26.

 

 

Wahab,  Z.  A.  (2015).  Epidemiology  and  Current  Situation  of  Leptospirosis  in Malaysia. 

Persidangan Kesihatan Persekitaran Pihak Berkuasa Tempatan 2015. pp. 1–67.

 

 

World  Health  Organization  (2009).  Informal  Expert  Consultation  On  Surveillance, Diagnosis 

and Risk Reduction of Leptospirosis, (September), 17–18. Retrieved from 

http://www.searo.who.int/entity/emerging_diseases/topics/Communicable_Disea 

ses_Surveillance_and_response_SEA-CD-217.pdf

 

 

World Health Organization. (2010). Report of the First Meeting of the Leptospirosis Burden        

Epidemiology        Reference        Group.        Retrieved        from 

http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/44382/1/9789241599894_eng.pdf

 

 

World    Health    Organization.    (2017).    Infectious    Disease.    Retrieved    from 

http://www.who.int/topics/infectious_diseases/en/

 

 

World  Animal  Health  Information  Database  &  Interface  of  the  World  Organization for   

Animal   Health.   (2014).   Geographical   Distribution.   Retrieved   from

http://www-old.caribvet.net

 

Zhao,  J.,  Liao,  J.,  Huang,  X.,  Zhao,  J.,  Wang,  Y.,  Ren,  J.,  …  Ding,  F.  (2016).

Mapping risk of leptospirosis in China using environmental and socioeconomic

data.  BMC  Infectious  Diseases,  16(1),  343.  http://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-016-

1653-5.

 

APPENDIX A: KNOWLEDGE DISSEMINATION

 

A)  Conference

 

(1) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017), Standardized morbidity ratio

for   leptospirosis   mapping   in   Malaysia.   4??   International   Postgraduate Conference on 

Science and Mathematics 2016, Universiti  Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Oral Presentation Session.

 

 

(2) Aznida   Che   Awang   &   Nor   Azah   Samat   (2017),   Leptospirosis   Disease Mapping with 

Standardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-Gamma Model: An Analysis  of  Leptospirosis  Disease  in  

Kelantan,  Malaysia.  1??  International Conference on Applied & Industrial Mathematics 2017, 

Vistana Kuantan City Centre, Oral Presentation Session.

 

B)  Publication

 

(1) Aznida Che Awang & Nor Azah Samat (2017). Standardized morbidity ratio

for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2006, p. 20006). 

http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4983861

 

 

(2) Aznida   Che   Awang   &   Nor   Azah   Samat   (2017),   Leptospirosis   Disease Mapping with 

Standardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-Gamma Model: An Analysis of Leptospirosis Disease in 

Kelantan, Malaysia. Journal if Physics:

Conference Series, 2017

 

(3) Nor  Azah  Samat  &  Aznida  Che  Awang  (2018),  The  Discrete  Time-Space

SIR-SI Age-Structured Model for Leptospirosis. SCIEMATIC2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


This material may be protected under Copyright Act which governs the making of photocopies or reproductions of copyrighted materials.
You may use the digitized material for private study, scholarship, or research.

Back to previous page

Installed and configured by Bahagian Automasi, Perpustakaan Tuanku Bainun, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
If you have enquiries, kindly contact us at pustakasys@upsi.edu.my or 016-3630263. Office hours only.