UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
Start | FAQ | About

QR Code Link :

Type :final_year_project
Subject :QA Mathematics
Main Author :Siti Nur Khairani Che Humaidi
Title :Peramalan penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia menggunakan model Holt-Winters
Place of Production :Tanjong Malim
Publisher :Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
Year of Publication :2023
Corporate Name :Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
PDF Guest :Click to view PDF file

Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
Elektrik merupakan sumber yang penting dalam pembangunan sosial dan ekonomi di seluruh dunia termasuk Malaysia. Penggunaan tenaga elektrik digunakan bagi menggerakkan pelbagai sektor di Malaysia seperti sektor industri, komersial, perlombongan, domestik dan lain lain. Maka, kajian ini dijalankan adalah untuk menganalisis pola bagi penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia dalam pelbagai sektor serta meramalkan nilai penggunaannya pada tahun 2022 sehingga tahun 2024. Analisis pola dan peramalan ini penting untuk mengetahui dengan lebih lanjut mengenai penggunaan tenaga dalam pelbagai sektor di Malaysia sama ada semakin meningkat atau menurun beserta faktor-faktor yang mendorong kepada terjadinya hal tersebut dan berdasarkan keputusan ini ia dapat membantu banyak pihak untuk terus mengekalkan kecekapan penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan statistik deskriptif seperti analisis min dan sisihan piawai manakala model Holt-Winters Multiplicative dipilih bagi membuat peramalan nilai penggunaan elektrik. Analisis data bagi kajian ini menggunakan dua perisian Matematik iaitu Excel Data Solver dan Minitab. Ketepatan ramalan bagi kajian ini diukur dengan menggunakan tiga jenis diagnostik model iaitu Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Standard Deviation (MAD) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Dapatan kajian menunjukkan nilai level adalah 1.00, nilai trend adalah 0.19 dan nilai seasonal adalah 0.21 manakala nilai MAPE adalah 3.2%. Hal ini menunjukkan model Holt-Winters boleh meramalkan nilai penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia dengan tepat.

References

Aamir, M., Shabri, A., & Ishaq, M. (2018). Improving forecasting accuracy of crude oil prices using decomposition ensemble model with reconstruction of IMFs based on ARIMA model. Malaysian Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, 14(4), 471–483. https://doi.org/10.11113/mjfas.v14n4.1013 

Abas, N., Kalair, A., & Khan, N. (2015). Review of fossil fuels and future energy technologies. Futures, 69, 31-49. 

Adebayo, T. S., & Akinsola, G. D. (2020). Investigating the causal linkage among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Thailand: An application of the Wavelet Coherence Approach. International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 10(1), 17–26. https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.2021.32233 

Ahmad, M. I. (2017). Seasonal decomposition of electricity consumption data. Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research, 6(4), 271. 

Aldhshan, S. R. S., Khairul Nizam, A. M., Wan Shafrina Wan, M. J., Karim, O. A., & Pradhan, B. (2021). Energy consumption and spatial assessment of renewable energy penetration and building energy efficiency in Malaysia: A review. Sustainability, 13(16), 9244. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169244  

Alshehry, A. S., & Belloumi, M. (2015). Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: The case of Saudi Arabia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, 237-247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.08.004 

Ali, S. S. S., Razman, M. R., & Awang, A. (2019). Tren penggunaan tenaga elektrik dan pembebasan gas rumah hijau di Malaysia (The trend of electricity consumption and greenhouse gases emissions in Malaysia). Asian Journal Of Environment, History And Heritage, 3(1), 39-45. 

Ali, S. S. S., Razman, M. R., & Awang, A.  (2020). The estimation and relationship of domestic electricity consumption and appliances ownership in Malaysia Intermediate City. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(6), 116-122. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8358 

Almazrouee, A. I., Almeshal, A. M., Almutairi, A. S., Alenezi, M. R., & Alhajeri, S. N. (2020). Long-term forecasting of electrical loads in Kuwait using prophet and holt–winters models. Applied Sciences, 10(16), 5627. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10165627 

Amran, S. N. Z., & Mohamed, N. (2021). Forecasting electricity supplied in Turkey using Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method and Artificial Neural Network (Ann) Models. Journal of Undergraduate Research. 3(3), 131-142. http://doi.org/10.46754/umtjur.2021.07.014 

Ansahri, A. A. (2019). Prakiraan kebutuhan energi listrik kabupaten berau. Elektrika Borneo, 5(2), 31-35. 

Ashaari, N. N. S. B. H., Sumadi, S. N., Salleh, N. A., Ismail, N. I., Adenan, N. A. H., & Husin, M. R. (2019). Masalah pergaulan bebas dalam kalangan remaja sekolah. International Journal of Humanities, Management and Social Science, 2(1), 38-50. https://doi.org/10.36079/lamintang.ij-humass-0201.21 

Aurna, N. F., Rubel, M. T. M., Siddiqui, T. A., Karim, T., Saika, S., Arifeen, M. M & Kabir, H. (2021). Time series analysis of electric energy consumption using autoregressive integrated moving average model and Holt-Winters model. TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control), 19(3), 991-1000. https://doi.org/10.12928/TELKOMNIKA.v19i3.15303 

Azemi, A., Palil, M. R., Amir, A. M., & Said, S. M. (2019). Cukai alam sekitar: pelaksanaan, penjagaan alam sekitar dan sistem cukai yang cekap. BITARA International Journal of Civilizational Studies and Human Sciences, 2(4), 1-15. 

Azis, S.S.A. (2021), Improving present-day energy savings among green building sector in Malaysia using benefit transfer approach: Cooling and lighting loads. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 

Bahari, M., & Abd Hamid, N. Z. (2019). Analisis dan peramalan siri masa suhu menggunakan pendekatan kalut. Journal of Quality Measurement and Analysis JQMA, 15(1), 43-52. 

Bawaneh, K., Ghazi Nezami, F., Rasheduzzaman, M., & Deken, B. (2019). Energy consumption analysis and characterization of healthcare facilities in the United States. Energies, 12(19), 3775. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12193775 

Berawi, F. M. (2021). Sektor ekonomi yang meraih keuntungan ketika wabak Covid-19. Buletin ICAN UiTM Negeri Sembilan, 7-9. 

Bertani, A., Di Paola, G., Russo, E., & Tuzzolino, F. (2018). How to describe bivariate data. Journal of Thoracic Disease, 10(2), 1133. https://doi.org/10.21037%2Fjtd.2018.01.134 

Chen, C., Twycross, J., & Garibaldi, J. M. (2017). A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting. PLOS ONE, 12(3), e0174202. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0174202 

Chicco, D., Warrens, M. J., & Jurman, G. (2021). The coefficient of determination R-squared is more informative than SMAPE, MAE, MAPE, MSE and RMSE in regression analysis evaluation. PeerJ Computer Science, 7, e623. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.623 

Chou, J. S., & Tran, D. S. (2018). Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders. Energy, 165, 709-726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.144 

Denis, D. J. (2018). SPSS Data Analysis for Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Statistics (1st ed.). United State. John Wiley & Sons. 

Du, W. C., & Xia, X. H. (2018). How does urbanization affect GHG emissions? A cross-country panel threshold data analysis. Applied energy 229: 872-883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.08.050 

Durrah, F. I., Yulia, Y., Parhusip, T. P., & Rusyana, A. (2018). Peramalan jumlah penumpang pesawat di bandara sultan iskandar muda dengan metode SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Journal of Data Analysis, 1(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.24815/jda.v1i1.11847 

Elias, E. M., Abu, N. H., Osman, N. H., Noordin, A., Ahmad, A., & Ishak, S. (2021). Model unjuran guna tenaga dalam sektor perindustrian di Negeri Pahang: satu kajian kes. Environment, 6(26), 90-104. Doi: 10.35631/JTHEM.626007. 

Fan, J., Liu, X., Li, Z., Wang, X., Cao, S., & Lei, J. (2021). Power load forecasting research based on neural network and holt-winters method. IOP Conference Series.Earth and Environmental Science, 692(2). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/692/2/022120 

Fonna, N. (2019). Pengembangan Revolusi Industri 4.0 dalam Berbagai Bidang. Guepedia. ISBN: 978-623-229-2703 

Ghazali, F., Mustafa, M., & Zulhafiz, W. M. (2018). Tarif galakan bagi pembangunan tenaga boleh baharu di Malaysia: Suatu kajian perundangan tenaga baharu. Kanun: Jurnal Undang-undang Malaysia, 30(2), 313-338. 

Hair, J. F. (2011). Multivariate data analysis: An overview. International encyclopedia of statistical science, 904-907. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04898-2_395 

Halim, M. H. H., (2021). Tahap kesedaran pekerja tentang penjimatan tenaga di hospital. [Disertasi Ijazah Sarjana Muda, Politeknik Sultan Salahuddin Abdul Aziz Shah]. Institutional Repository. http://repository.psa.edu.my/handle/123456789/3237 

Harun, M. S. (2021). Perubahan sosial semasa wabak Covid-19 dari perspektif uruf. Journal of Human Capital Development (JHCD), 14(2), 41-60. 

Hamid, H. H. B. A., Zakaria, I. B., & Othman, M. S. B. (2019). Tenaga boleh diperbaharui bagi penjanaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia: Satu kajian literatur. Journal on Technical and Vocational Education, 4(3), 129-142. 

Hansun, S. (2017). New estimation rules for unknown parameters on Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method. Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences, 49(2), 127-135. 

Hansun, S., et al. (2019). Revisiting the holt-winters’ additive method for better forecasting. International journal of enterprise information systems, 15(2), 43-57. https://doi.org/10.4018/IJEIS.2019040103 

Hashim, N. M., Azmi, M. K. B., & Jani, Y. M. (2019). Understanding trend and variation of electrical energy usage among students in the National University of Malaysia. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD), 3(3), 31-35. 

Hazwani, F. (2021, September 27). Tenaga Elektrik & Kuasa Elektrik (Penjelasan Lengkap) - Root of Science. Root of Science. https://rootofscience.com/blog/2021/umum/tenaga-elektrik-kuasa-elektrik-penjelasan-lengkap/ 

Hussain, T. P. R. S., Ismail, H., & Noh, M. K. M. (2013). Kesedaran mengenai penjimatan tenaga elektrik dan kelestarian alam sekitar. PROSIDING PERKEM VIII, 2, 977-990. 

Hussain, W. N. H. W., & Halim, L. (2020). Tahap nilai pelajar terhadap persekitaran dan tahap tingkah laku penjimatan tenaga elektrik berdasarkan jantina dan status sosioekonomi. Conference of Future Education And Advances (Icofea) 2020 (P. 213). 

Husnul, N. R. I., Prasetya, E. R., Ajimat, A., & Purnomo, L. I. (2020). Statistik deskriptif (1st ed.). Indonesia. Unpam Press. 

Idris, J., & Basir, H. (2020). Pengetahuan dan pengamalan amalan hijau dalam kalangan mahasiswa. Jurnal Pendidikan Malaysia, 42 (1). 41-49 

Isman, N. A. M. N., Ruslan, N. S., Hisyamuddein, N. A. H. A., & Sanik, M. E. (2022). Kajian kesan corak landskap terhadap psikologi pengguna jalan raya. Multidisciplinary Applied Research and Innovation, 3(1), 346-353. 

Izhar, M. F., Abd Rahman, I. H., & Aziz, A. (2021). Pandemik Covid-19: Pendekatan kerajaan Malaysia dalam mengurus keselamatan negara. International Journal of Law, Government and Communication, 6(26), 23-38. . https://doi.org/10.35631/IJLGC.626003. 

Konan, E. H., & Asmangi, S. N. (2021). Faktor-faktor tahap kesedaran penjimatan tenaga elektrik dikalangan pengguna UITM. [Disertasi Ijazah Sarjana Muda, Politeknik Sultan Salahuddin Abdul Aziz Shah]. Institutional Repository. http://repository.psa.edu.my/handle/123456789/3236 

Leite Coelho da Silva, F., da Costa, K., Canas Rodrigues, P., Salas, R., & López-Gonzales, J. L. (2022). Statistical and artificial neural networks models for electricity consumption forecasting in the Brazilian industrial sector. Energies, 15(2), 588. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15020588 

Lewis, C.D. (1982). Industrial and business forecasting methods. London: Butterworths. 

Lidiema, C. (2017). Modelling and forecasting inflation rate in Kenya using SARIMA and Holt-Winters Triple Exponential Smoothing. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 6(3), 161-169. https://doi.org/ 10.11648/j.ajtas.20170603.15 

Liu, C., Sun, B., Zhang, C., & Li, F. (2020). A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine. Applied energy, 275, 115-383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115383 

Miao, J. (2015, August). The energy consumption forecasting in China based on ARIMA model. In International Conference on Materials Engineering and Information Technology Applications (MEITA 2015) (pp. 192-196). Atlantis Press. 

Mills, T. (2019). Applied Time Series Analysis: A Practical Guide to Modeling and Forecasting (1st ed.). Loughborough, United Kingdom. Academic Press. 

Moon, H., Park, S. Y., Jeong, C., & Lee, J. (2018). Forecasting electricity demand of electric vehicles by analyzing consumers’ charging patterns. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 62, 64-79. 

Muhartini, A. A., Sahroni, O., Rahmawati, S. D., Febrianti, T., & Mahuda, I. (2021). Analisis peramalan jumlah penerimaan mahasiswa baru dengan menggunakan metode regresi linear sederhana. Jurnal Bayesian: Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika, 1(1), 17-23. https://doi.org/10.46306/bay.v1i1.2 

Nasution, L. M. (2017). Statistik deskriptif. Hikmah, 14(1), 49-55. 

Noeurn, V. (2021). Factors affecting electricity consumption of residential consumers in Cambodia. IOP Conference Series.Earth and Environmental Science, 746(1) https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/746/1/012034 

Ng, W. T. (2012). A study on the electrical energy consumption characteristic of urban household in Klang Valley, Malaysia (Master's thesis) Kuala Lumpur: International Islamic University Malaysia. 

Nor, H. M., Adnan, H. H., & Hussain, T. P. R. S. (2021). Prasarana dan Komuniti Luar Bandar. Amsterdam University Press. 

Okagbue, H. I., Oguntunde, P. E., Obasi, E. C., & Akhmetshin, E. M. (2021). Trends and usage pattern of SPSS and Minitab Software in Scientific research. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 1743 (1). 

Permatasari, I. K. (2019). Analisis trend penjualan dengan Metode Least Square pada Apotek Swasta Surabaya. Jurnal Mitra Manajemen, 3(3), 283-298. https://doi.org/10.52160/ejmm.v3i3.210 

Puspitasari, N., & Murtafi'in, A. (2021, December). Pembangkit listrik tenaga limbah (Pemanfaatan limbah kantin vyatra pem akamigas menjadi listrik dengan metode Microbial Fuel Cell). Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknologi Energi dan Mineral (Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 258-263). 

Rachman, R. (2018). Penerapan metode moving average dan exponential smoothing pada peramalan produksi industri garment. Jurnal Informatika, 5(2), 211-220. 

Rahman, H. A., & Suppian, R. (Eds.). (2015). Pemanasan Global: Impak Terhadap Masyarakat dan Kesihatan (UUM Press): UUM Press. UUM Press. 

Rashid, N. A., (2020, Dis 16). Permintaan elektrik susut, tenaga boleh diperbaharui peroleh momentum. http://energy.bernama.com/newsbm.php?id=1912725 

Razali, S. N. A. M., Rusiman, M. S., Zawawi, N. I., & Arbin, N. (2018). Forecasting of water consumptions expenditure using Holt-Winter’s and ARIMA. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 995(1). IOP Publishing. 

Robial, S. M. (2018). Perbandingan model statistik pada analisis metode peramalan time series: (Studi Kasus: Pt. Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tbk Kandatel Sukabumi). Santika: Jurnal Ilmiah Sains dan Teknologi, 8(2), 823-838. 

Rosli, M. K. A. B. M., & Rus, A. K. A. M. (2015). Manifestasi suatu tenaga baru: peranan kerajaan dalam membangunkan kemudahan bekalan elektrik. SEJARAH: Journal of the Department of History, 24(1). 1-16. https://doi.org/10.22452/sejarah.vol24no1.1  

Saad, S., Tuan Kamarudin, T. F., & Awang, A. H. (2018). Pengetahuan dan sokongan belia terhadap dasar kerajaan mengenai perubahan iklim. Malaysian Journal of Society and Space, 14(1), 130–141. https://doi.org/10.17576/geo-2018-1401-10 

Sandilands, D. (2014). Univariate Analysis. Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research, 6815–6817. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0753-5_3108 

Savitri, A. (2019). Revolusi Industri 4.0: Mengubah Tantangan Menjadi Peluang di Era Disrupsi 4.0. Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Genesis. 

Sena, B., Zaki, S.A, Rijal, H.B., Rey, J.A.A., Yusoff, N.M., Yakub, F., Ridwan, M.K., Sukki, F.M. (2021). Determinant factors of electricity consumption for a Malaysian household based on a field survey. Sustainability, 13(2), 818. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020818 

Shahron, A. H., & Wee, S. T. (2020). Perbandingan penggunaan tenaga bagi bangunan hijau ‘Diamond Building’dengan bangunan pejabat konvensional di Malaysia. Research in Management of Technology and Business, 1(1), 622-634. 

Shcherbakov, M. V., Brebels, A., Shcherbakova, N. L., Tyukov, A. P., Janovsky, T. A., & Kamaev, V. A. E. (2013). A survey of forecast error measures. World applied sciences journal, 24(24), 171-176. 10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.24.itmies.80032 

Shih, H., & Rajendran, S. (2019). Comparison of time series methods and machine learning algorithms for forecasting Taiwan Blood Services Foundation’s blood supply. Journal of healthcare engineering, 2019. 

Suruhanjaya Tenaga Malaysia. (2018, August 11). 8 Perkara penting untuk fahami tarif elektrik. Harian Metro. 25. https://www.st.gov.my/ms/contents/files/news/2018-08-13/1534145850.pdf 

Sri Rosliana Lubis. (2021).The restaurant survival strategy in Dairi during the Covid-19 pandemic. Tourism, Hospitality and Culture Insights Journal, 1(1), 43–51.   

Trull, Ó., García-Díaz, J. C., & Troncoso, A. (2020). Stability of multiple seasonal holt-winters models applied to hourly electricity demand in Spain. Applied Sciences, 10(7), 2630. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10072630 

Trull, O., Peiró-Signes, A., & García-Díaz, J. C. (2019). Electricity forecasting improvement in a destination using tourism indicators. Sustainability, 11(13), 3656. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133656 

Wang, Q., Li, S., & Li, R. (2018). Forecasting energy demand in China and India: Using single-linear, hybrid-linear, and non-linear time series forecast techniques. Energy, 161, 821-831. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.168 

Yang, D., Alessandrini, S., Antonanzas, J., Antonanzas-Torres, F., Badescu, V., Beyer, H. G., & Zhang, J. (2020). Verification of deterministic solar forecasts. Solar Energy, 210, 20-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2020.04.019 

Yew, V.W.C., Tahir, Z., Sia, M., Besar, J.A., Saad, S., Rose. R.A.C., Sutaro, Y., Ling, C.K., Lim, J.W., Ramlan, S.F.M. (2019). Geographic information system untuk pembangunan mampan. Journal of Science Review, 1(1), 36-59. 

Yusof, M. S. (June, 2012). Pembangunan suis lampu pengesan pergerakan. Project Report. UTeM, Melaka, Malaysia.  

Zainuddin, N., Elias, E.M., Melan, M., Sabar, R., (2017). Aplikasi teknologi kelestarian (Hybrid) pada pengangkutan awam (bas) di bandar satu pendekatan diskriptif. Journal of Technology and Operations Management, 71-87. 

 

 

 

 


This material may be protected under Copyright Act which governs the making of photocopies or reproductions of copyrighted materials.
You may use the digitized material for private study, scholarship, or research.

Back to previous page

Installed and configured by Bahagian Automasi, Perpustakaan Tuanku Bainun, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
If you have enquiries, kindly contact us at pustakasys@upsi.edu.my or 016-3630263. Office hours only.