Estimating upsurge of HIV cases in Malaysia by using heun's predictor-corrector method

Emmanuel, Sabastine

Abstract

The prevalence of HIV/AIDS remains a significant global health concern, including in Malaysia. In this study, a mathematical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of HIV transmission and progression within the Malaysian population. The model incorporates various factors such as population size, infection rate, progression to AIDS, recruitment, natural death, and death due to the disease. Heun's predictor-corrector method was applied to numerically solve the model equations and predict the population of susceptible individuals, infected individuals, and AIDS cases over time. Real-world data on HIV/AIDS cases in Malaysia were used to validate the model and provide accurate predictions. The results indicated a gradual decline in the number of susceptible individuals and an increase in the number of infected individuals and AIDS cases over the simulation period. These findings can contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of HIV/AIDS transmission in Malaysia and aid in the development of effective prevention and control strategies. Further research and refinement of the model are essential for continuous monitoring and projection of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia, facilitating timely interventions and resource allocation for healthcare planning and policy-making. Keywords: HIV, Transmission, Epidemic, Heun's method, Dynamics, Trends

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