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| Abstract : Perpustakaan Tuanku Bainun |
| The main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and its potential determinants during normal and crisis periods for selected ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines) under diverse economic conditions from 1994 to 2020. The analysis utilizes Toda- Yamamoto Granger causality to examine the causal relationships among the variables. Autoregressive distributed lag is employed to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships among the variables. The empirical analysis indicates that there is either unidirectional or bidirectional causality between inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates, which granger cause economic growth, or vice versa, in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines. Meanwhile, the empirical analysis shows that inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate have a negative long-run relationship towards economic growth, while inflation, unemployment, and exchange rate have a negative short-run relationship towards economic growth in ASEAN-5. In conclusion, this study detected a unidirectional causality between economic growth and inflation and between economic growth and unemployment, or vice versa. The causality between economic growth and interest rate is weak. Economic growth and exchange rate have a bidirectional relationship. Economic growth benefits from reducing inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates, underscoring their positive impact on development. |
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