UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
Start | FAQ | About

QR Code Link :

Type :article
Subject :HG Finance
Main Author :Rambeli @ Ramli Norimah, Hashim Emilda, Hashim Asmawi, Awang Marikan Dayang Affizzah, Podivinsky Jan M.,
Title :Empirical analysis on exchange rate fluctuation and sectoral stock returns in Malaysia
Year of Publication :2017

Full Text :
The purpose of this study is to observe the impact of the exchange rate fluctuation in Malaysia on sectors stock returns by using an augmented standard capital asset pricing model from October, 1992 to December, 2015. This paper extends previous studies on exchange rate fluctuation for the case of Malaysia by estimating the augmented capital asset pricing model for the price indexes sectors, including financial, plantation, properties, industrial, tin and mining, trade and services, consumer products and construction sector indexes. Moreover, this study also expands the literature by adapting the modelling proposed by Ibrahim (2008) by considering the exchange rate volatility, Asian financial crisis dummy and pegging exchange rate dummy. Such an analysis significant in part because of the importance of exchange rate fluctuation as drivers of sectoral returns. In general this study successfully documented the exchange rate fluctuation scenario in Malaysia. Overall, the result suggests that the exchange rate fluctuation in Malaysia can be categorized as the long memory in the volatility process. The results further suggest the sectors are largely affected by the currency fluctuated.

References
1. Adnan Hey, Q.M., Iran, U., & Hye, A. 2009. Exchange-rate and trade: A causality analysis for Pakistan economy. The IUP Journal of Applied Economics 8 (September-November):161-173. 2. Adler, M & B. Dumas. 1980. The exposure of long-term foreign currency bonds. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 15: 973-994. 3. Adler, M. & B. Dumas. 1984. Exposure to currency risk: definition and measurement.Financial Management 13:41-50. 4. Aydemir, O. & E. Demirhan. 2009. The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates evidence from Turkey International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 23: 207-215. 5. Azman-Saini, W.N.W., Habibullah, M.S., Law, S.H., & DayangAfizzah, A.M. 2006. Stock price, exchange rates and causality in Malaysia: A note. Munich Personal RePEc Archive: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/656/ 6. Baharumshah, A.Z, Mohd, S.H. & Sung, K.A. 2009. On the predictive power of monetary exchange rate model: The case of the Malaysian Ringgit/US dollar rate. Applied Economics 41: 1761-1770. 7. Bartov, E. & Bodnar, G. M. 1994. Firm valuation, earnings expectations, and the exchange-rate exposure effect.Journal of Finance 49: 1755-1785. 8. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T. 1989. Common stochastic trend in a system of exchange rates. The Journal of Finance 44(1): 167-181. 9. Bollerslev, T., Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F. 1992. ARCH Modelling in Finance. Journal of Econometrics 52: 5-59. 10. Brown, G.W. 2001. Managing foreign exchange risk with derivatives. Journal of Financial Economics 60: 401-448. 11. Chee, W.H., Hui, B.T. & Annuar, M.N. 2004. Risk sensitivity of bank stocks in Malaysia: Empirical evidence across the Asian financial crisis. Asian Economic Journal 18(3): 261-276. 12. Chowdhury, A.R. 1993. Does exchange-rate volatility depress trade flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models.Review of Economics and Statistics 75: 700-706. 13. Cushman, D. 1983. The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade. Journal of International Economics 15: 44–63. 14. Di Iorio, A. & R. Faff. 2000. An analysis of asymmetry in foreign currency exposure of the Australian equities market. Journal of Multinational Financial Management 10: 133-159. 15. Dominguez, K.M. 1998. The dollar exposure of Japanese companies. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 12: 388-405. 16. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Linda L. Tesar. 2001. Trade and exposure. NBER Working paper, No. 466. http://www. fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers451-475/ r466.pdf 17. Dumas, B. 1978. The theory of the trading firm revisited. The Journal of Finance 33: 1019-1030. 18. Hooy, C.W., Tan, B.T., & Nasir, A.M. 2004. Risk sensitivity of bank stocks in Malaysia: Empirical evidence across the Asian financial crisis. Asian Economic Journal 18(3): 261-276. 19. Heckerman, D.1972. The exchange-rate of foreign operations. Journal of Business 44(January): 42-48. 20. Hodder, J.E.1982. Exposure to exchange-rate movement. Journal of International Economics 13: 375-387. 21. Hsieh, D., 1989. Testing for nonlinearity in daily foreign exchange rate change. Journal of Business 62: 339–368. 22. Ibrahim, M.H. 2008. The exchange-rate exposure of sectoral stock returns: Evidence from Malaysia. International Journal of Economic Perspectives 2(2):64-76. 23. Jayasighe, P. & A.K. Tsui. 2008. Exchange rate exposure of sectoral returns and volatilities: Evidence from Japanese industrial sectors. Japan and the World Economy 20: 639-660. 24. Jorian, P.1990. The exchange-rate exposure of U.S. Multinational. The Journal of Business 63(3): 331-345. 25. Joseph, N.L. 2002. Modelling the impacts of interest rate and exchange rate changes on UK stock returns. Journal on Derivatives Use, Trading and Regulation 1: 306-323. 26. Kamil, H. 2009. How do exchange-rate affect firms’ incentives to hedge currency risk in emerging markets? IMF Publisher: http://www.eea-esem.com/files/papers/EEAESEM/2009/3215/Herman_Kamil_Barcelona_2009.pdf 27. Kaplan, E., & D. Rodrik.2001. Did the Malaysia capital controls work? NBER Working Paper Series, No.8142. Available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_ id=261267. 28. Koutmos, G. & A.D. Martin.2003. First and second moment exchange rate exposure: Evidence from U.S. Stock Returns. The Financial Review 38: 455-471. 29. Kroner, K.F. & W.D. Lastrapes. 1993. The impact of exchangerate volatility on international trade: reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in mean model. Journal of International Money and Finance 12: 298-318. 30. Kumar, S. 2009. Investigating causal Relationship between Stock Return with respect to Exchange-rate and FII evidence from India. Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA), Paper No. 15793. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen. de/15793/1/MPRA_paper_15793.pdf 31. Lobo, B.J., 2000. Asymmetric effects of interest rate changes on stock prices. The Financial Review 35: 125-144. 32. Lintner, J.1965. The valuation of risk assets and selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. Review of Economics and Statistics 47:13-37. 33. Mahani, Z.A.2002. Rewriting the Rule: The Malaysian Crisis Management Model. Kuala Lumpur: Prentice Hall. 34. Martin, A.D., J. Madura, & A. Akhigbe. 1999. Economic exchange-rate exposure of U.S.-based MNCs operating in Europe. Financial Review 34: 21-36. 35. Meese, R. & Gogoff, K. 1982. The out of sample failure of Empirical Exchange rate Models: sampling Error or Misspecification? Chapter in book, 67-112. http://www. nber.org/chapters/c11377.pdf 36. Narulita, W.A.& M. Titi.2006. Measurement on first-moment exchange rate exposure and second-moment sector index exposure: Evidences from Jakarta Stock Exchange. Unpublished article journal. http://www.fiskal.depkeu. go.id/webbkf/kajian%5CEXCHANGE.pdf 37. Norimah & Podivisky.2013. A study of exogeneity tests on export-led growth hypothesis: the empirical evidence on post-crisis exchange rate regime in Malaysia. International Business Education Journal 6(1): 7-20. 38. Pozo, S.1992. Conditional exchange-rate volatility and the volume of international trade: Evidence from the early 1900s. Review of Economics and Statistics 74:325-329. 39. Schmidt, C.W. & Broll, U. 2008. The effect of exchange-rate on U.S. foreign direct investment: An empirical analysis. Munich Personal RePEc. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen. de/10713/1/MPRA_paper_10713.pdf 40. Sekmen, F. & Saribus, H. 2007. Cointegration and causality among exchange-rate, export, and import: empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Econometrics and International Development 7(2): 71-78. 41. Sercu, P., 1992a. Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms. Journal of Banking and Finance 16: 155-182. 42. Sercu, P., 1992b. Exchange risk, exposure, and the option to trade. Journal of International Money and Finance 11: 579-593. 43. Shapiro, Alan C., 1975. Exchange rate changes, inflation, and the value of the multinational corporation. Journal of Finance 30(May): 485-502. 44. Sharpe, W.F. 1964. Capital Asset Prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance 19(3): 425-442. 45. Tiwari, R., 2003. Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in Southeast ASIA: An Empirical Survey of De-Facto Policies. Working Paper (University of Hamburg). 46. Toda, H. & Yamamoto, T., 1995. Statistical inference in vector auto regression with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics 66: 225-250.

This material may be protected under Copyright Act which governs the making of photocopies or reproductions of copyrighted materials.
You may use the digitized material for private study, scholarship, or research.

Back to previous page

Installed and configured by Bahagian Automasi, Perpustakaan Tuanku Bainun, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
If you have enquiries, kindly contact us at pustakasys@upsi.edu.my or 016-3630263. Office hours only.