The development and evaluation of Mathematical models for the spread of political figure voters with application to presidential elections in Indonesia

The aims of this study were to develop and evaluate the mathematical models for the spread of political figure fever in presidential elections in Indonesia. This thesis introduced several new models concerning the analysis of the spread of voters by showing modeling and simulation. The methodology is based on quantitative research using epidemiological approach. This study employed four different types of continuous time deterministic models; SIR, SIRS, SI1I2R, and SI1I2RS . These new models were applied to the presidential elections data in Indonesia to analyze the dynamical spread of voters of presidential candidates. The analysis of the result were displayed in the graph to show dynamical change on each individual. Simulations performed to obtain an overview of the dynamics of the spread of the influence of voters in the population. The results comparing the simulations for these models showed the best model for estimating the number of votes is SI1I2RS model. Furthermore, from simulations it can be seen how quickly changes occur with regard to the values of the parameters that obtained from various sources. The results also showed that to increase the number of votes, the political parties or political figures should consider the factor of media and boredom rate. The presence of media will increase the spread of political figure fever among voters. Positive media will increase the number of political figure voters, otherwise negative media will decrease the number of political figure voters. The study also concludes that the boredom rate is one of the sensitive parameters in the political figure fever model. The higher the boredom rate between voter populations, the more serious attention of political figure is needed. As a conclusion, this study succeeds to develop and evaluate new mathematical models using epidemiological approach. The implication of the study is that these mathematical models could be used to assist political parties or political figures in making the strategy to increase their supporters by estimating the number of votes of both cases; absence and presence of media. The results displayed in voters map can be used to identify which area has the highest number of voters, which area with the lowest number of voters, or which area need further attention to increase the number of voters.