Aplikasi model baharu penambahbaikan pendekatan kalut ke atas peramalan siri masa kepekatan ozon

Abd Hamid Nor Zila, Md Noorani Mohd Salmi,

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Kajian ini merupakan aplikasi pendekatan kalut ke atas peramalan siri masa bahan pencemar udara ozon di stesen asas Malaysia yang terletak di Jerantut, Pahang. Sebelum model peramalan dibina, siri masa diuji terlebih dahulu sama ada bersifat kalut atau tidak. Melalui plot ruang fasa dan kaedah Cao, siri masa bahan pencemar ozon didapati bersifat kalut bermatra rendah. Oleh itu, model peramalan melalui kaedah penghampiran linear setempat dibina.Sebagai inovasi, model ini ditambah baik. Sebagai perbandingan, model peramalan regresi linear turut dibina. Melalui pengiraan purata ralat mutlak, ralat punca purata kuasa dua dan pekali korelasi, keputusan menunjukkan bahawa model baharu penambahbaikan penghampiran linear setempat adalah lebih baik berbanding model-model yang lain. Maka, penambahbaikan yang dilakukan adalah berbaloi. Dengan itu, pendekatan kalut adalah pendekatan alternatif yang sesuai digunakan bagi membangunkan model peramalan siri masa bahan pencemar ozon. Penemuan model baharu dalam kajian ini diharap dapat membantu memudahkan usaha pihak-pihak berkepentingan dalam menguruskan isu pencemaran udara, khususnya ozon.

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