Analisis dan peramalan siri masa suhu menggunakan pendekatan kalut

Nor Zila Abd Hamid

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Type :	article
Subject :	G Geography (General)
Main Author :	Nor Zila Abd Hamid
Additional Authors :	Munirah Bahari
Title :	Analisis dan peramalan siri masa suhu menggunakan pendekatan kalut

Place of Production :	Tanjong Malim
Publisher :	Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
Year of Publication :	2019
Corporate Name :	Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
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Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris

Analisis dan peramalan siri masa suhu adalah penting kerana perubahan suhu boleh membawa kesan serius kepada kesihatan. Kajian ini dijalankan bertujuan menganalisis dan meramal siri masa suhu di Jerantut, Pahang, Malaysia dengan menggunakan pendekatan kalut. Pemodelan kalut dibahagikan kepada dua tahap; pembinaan semula ruang fasa dan proses peramalan. Melalui pembinaan semula ruang fasa, data skalar satu matra dibina semula menjadi ruang fasa multimatra. Ruang fasa multimatra ini digunakan untuk mengesan kehadiran dinamik kalut melalui kaedah plot ruang fasa dan kaedah Cao. Keputusan menunjukkan bahawa siri masa yang diperhatikan bersifat kalut. Oleh itu, peramalan satu jam ke hadapan dibina melalui kaedah penghampiran purata setempat yang merupakan kaedah peramalan asas menggunakan pendekatan kalut. Nilai pekali korelasi yang diperoleh adalah 0.9443. Nilai yang menghampiri satu ini menunjukkan hasil peramalan yang bagus dengan merupakan refleksi bahawa siri masa yang diramal dan siri masa yang sebenar adalah hampir antara satu sama lain. Oleh itu, pendekatan kalut merupakan satu kaedah alternatif yang bagus untuk digunakan bagi meramal siri masa suhu. Keputusan ini diharapkan boleh membantu merealisasikan perancangan strategik Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia dan Jabatan Alam Sekitar seperti meningkatkan keberkesanan perkhidmatan cuaca bagi mengurangkan risiko bencana dan memperkukuhkan perkhidmatan iklim bagi kemakmuran negara.

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