UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
|
|
|
Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris |
A notable feature of empirical research on the inclusion of the economic uncertainty in the money demand function is that very few published papers rely on thespecifcations with formal clarity by studying the response of precautionary demand for money to changes in economic uncertainty. To overcome this shortcoming, this study uses the augmented form to specify the demand for money function and examines the empirical validity based on a sample of eleven countries, including four developed countries and seven developing countries. Using the panel error-correction technique, the fndings provide some policy implications; the augmented form of money demand function can characterize the diference between the three primary motives of money demand—the precautionary motive, the transactions motive and the speculative motive, and support the choice of narrow money as a guide for monetary policy that ensures that economic agents have enough money to meet unexpected expenses triggered by economic uncertainty and helps to fne-tune the interest rate misalignment and output disruption that eventually improves the efectiveness of monetary policy.
|
References |
1. Aastveit KA, Natvik GJ, Sola S (2017) Economic uncertainty and the infuence of monetary policy. J Int Money Finance 76:50–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfn.2017.05.003 2. Anderson RG, Bordo M, Duca JV (2017) Money and velocity during fnancial crises: from the great depression to the great recession. J Econ Dyn Control 81:32–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jedc.2017.03.014 3. Andrle M, Berg A, Berkes E, Morales RA, Portillo RA, Vlcek J (2013) Money targeting in a modern forecasting and policy analysis system: an application to Kenya. IMF working paper 13/239 4. Apergis N (1999) Infation uncertainty and money demand: evidence from a monetary regime change and the case of Greece. Int Econ J 13(2):21–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168739900000034 5. Arize AC, Malindretos J, Grivoyannis EC (2005) Infation-rate volatility and money demand: evidence from less developed countries. Int Rev Econ Financ 14:57–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. iref.2003.04.001 6. Bahmani S (2013) Exchange rate volatility and demand for money in less developed countries. J Econ Finance 37(3):442–452. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-011-9190-y 7. Bahmani-Oskooee M, Xi D (2011) Economic uncertainty, monetary uncertainty and the demand for money in Australia. Aust Econ Pap 50(4):115–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2011.00417.x 8. Bahmani-Oskooee M, Kutan A, Xi D (2013) The impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies. Appl Econ 45:3278–3287. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036 846.2012.705430 9. Baker SR, Bloom N, Davis SJ (2016) Measuring economic policy uncertainty. Q J Econ 131(4):1593–1636 10. Ball L (1997) Efcient rules for monetary policy. National Bureau of Economic Research working paper no. 5952 11. Baum CF, Caglayan M, Ozkan N, Talavera O (2006) The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on nonfnancial frms’ demand for liquidity. Rev Finance Econ 15(4):289–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. rfe.2006.01.002 12. Bekaert G, Hoerova M, Duca ML (2013) Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy. J Monetary Econ 60(7):771–788 13. Belke A, Polleit T (2009) Monetary economics in globalised fnancial markets. Springer, Berlin 14. Bernanke BS (1983) Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Q J Econ 98(1):85–106 15. Bernstein JI, Fisher D (1981) The demand for money and the term structure of interest rates: a portfolio approach. Southern Econ J 48(2):400–411 16. Bierut B (2013) Global liquidity as an early warning indicator of asset price booms: G5 versus broader measures. De Nederlandsche Bank, DNB Working Paper No. 377. https://www.dnb.nl/binaries/ Working%20Paper%20377_tcm46-291373.pdf. Accessed 8 May 2017 17. Blackburne EF, Frank MW (2007) Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels. The Stata Journal 7(2):197–208 18. Blanchard OJ, Fischer S (1989) Lectures on macroeconomics. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press, Cambridge 19. Bloom N (2009) The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica 77(3):623–685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248 20. Carabelli AM (1988) On Keynes’s method. Macmillan, London 21. Cardim de Carvalho FJ (2010) Uncertainty and money: Keynes, Tobin and Kahn and the disappearance of the precautionary demand for money from liquidity preference theory. Camb J Econ 34(4):709–725 22. Carstensen K (2006) Stock market downswing and the stability of European monetary union money demand. J Bus Econ Stat 24(4):395–402. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500106000000369 23. Choi WG, Oh S (2003) A money demand function with output uncertainty, monetary uncertainty, and fnancial innovations. J Money Credit Bank 35(5):685–709 24. Chung K, Lee JE, Loukoianova E, Park H, Shin HS (2015) Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates. Econ Policy 30(82):231–290. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiv002 25. Dehn J (2000) Private investment in developing countries: the efects of commodity shocks and uncertainty. Centre for the Study of African Economics Working Paper Series 2000–11. http://citeseerx. ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.163.7787&rep=rep1&type=pdf. Accessed 8 May 2017 26. Evans AJ (2015) The Financial Crisis in the United Kingdom: uncertainty, calculation, and error. In: 27. Boettke PJ, Coyne CJ (eds) The Oxford handbook of Austrian economics. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 749–780 28. Gan PT (2014) The optimal economic uncertainty index: a grid search application. Comput Econ 43(2):159–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-013-9366-y 29. Golob JE (1994) Does Infation Uncertainty Increase with Infation? Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) 3:27–38. https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q94golb.pdf. Accessed 1 May 2017 30. Granato J, Lo M, Wong MCS (2010) A framework for unifying formal and empirical analysis. Am J Polit Sci 54(3):783–797. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00460.x 31. Hara N, Ichiue H, Kojima S, Nakamura K, Shirota T (2009) Practical use of macroeconomic models at central banks. Bank of Japan Review 2009-E-1. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/ rev_2009/data/rev09e01.pdf. Accessed 2 May 2017 32. Higgins M, Majin S (2009) Infation uncertainty and money demand. Appl Econ Lett 16(13):1323–1328 33. Hsiao C (2007) Panel data analysis—advantages and Challenges. Test 16(1):1–22 34. Im KS, Pesaran MH, Shin Y (2003) Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J Econometrics 115(1):53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 35. International Monetary Fund (2014) World economic outlook: recovery strengthens, remains uneven. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 36. International Monetary Fund (2016) World economic outlook: subdued demand – Symptoms and remedies. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 37. Janoski T, Hicks AM (1994) The comparative political economy of the welfare state. Cambridge University Press, New York 38. Kahn R (1972) Some notes on liquidity preference. Selected essays on employment and growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 72–96 (reprinted) 39. Kahn GA, Benolkin S (2007) The role of money in monetary policy: why do the Fed and ECB see it so diferently? Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) 3:5–36. https://www.kansa scityfed.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/3q07kahn.pdf. Accessed 5 May 2017 40. Keynes JM (1936) The general theory of employment, interest and money. Macmillan, London 41. Kim J (2000) Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy. J Monetary Econ 45(2):329–359 42. King M (2002) No money, no infation—the role of money in the economy. Bank Engl Q Bull 2:162–177 43. Laidler DEW (1977) The demand for money: theories and evidence. Harper and Row, New York 44. Levin A, Williams JC (2003) Robust monetary policy with competing reference models. J Monetary Econ 50(5):945–947 45. Levin A, Lin C, Chu CJ (2002) Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and fnite-sample properties. J Econometrics 108(1):1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7 46. Maddala GS, Wu S (1999) A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford B Econ Stat 61(1):631–652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631 47. McCallum BT, Goodfriend MS (1987) Demand for money: theoretical studies. In: Eatwell J, Millgate M, Newman P (eds) The new Palgrave: a dictionary of economics. MacMillan, London, pp 775–781 48. McGibany JM, Nourzad F (1995) Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the US. Int Rev Econ Financ 4(4):411–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/1059-0560(95)90037-3 49. Nordic Council of Ministers (2002) Standard budgets and household economy. In: Report from a seminal on Nordic models for household budgeting in St Petersburg, 14–16 October 2001. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen 50. Papademos L (2003) Monetary policy, the economic cycle and fnancial dynamics. Speech presented at the International Symposium of the Banque de France. European Central Bank, Paris. http://www. ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2003/html/sp030307_1.en.html. Accessed 3 May 2017 51. Pesaran MH, Shih Y, Smith R (1997) Estimating long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panels. DAE Working Papers Amalgamated Series 9721. University of Cambridge, Cambridge 52. Pesaran MH, Shih Y, Smith R (1999) Pooled mean group estimation of dynamics heterogeneous panels. J Am Stat Assoc 94(446):621–634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182 53. Salerno JT (2003) An Austrian taxonomy of defation with applications to the U.S. Q J Austrian Econ 6(4):81–109. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12113-003-1007-1 54. Stanley TD, Doucouliagos H (2012) Meta-regression analysis in economics and business. Routledge, New York 55. Stewart J (1976) Understanding econometrics. Routledge, London 56. Strahan PE (2012) Liquidity risk and credit in the fnancial crisis. Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) 15:1–5. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/fles/el2012-15.pdf. Accessed 7 May 2017 57. Svensson LEO (2000) Open-economy infation targeting. J Int Econ 50(1):155–183 58. Thomas LB (1997) Money, banking, and fnancial markets. McGraw-Hill, New York 59. Tiedens LZ, Linton S (2001) Judgement under emotional certainty and uncertainty: the efects of specifc emotions on information processing. J Pers Soc Psychol 81(6):973–988. https://doi. org/10.1037//0022-3514.81.6.973 60. United Nations (2016) World economic situation and prospects, 2016. United Nations, New York 61. Weatherson B (2002) Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates. Camb J Econ 26(1):47–62 62. Woodford M (2008) How important is money in the conduct of monetary policy? J Money Credit Bank 40(8):1561–1598. https://doi.org/10.2307/25483463
|
This material may be protected under Copyright Act which governs the making of photocopies or reproductions of copyrighted materials. You may use the digitized material for private study, scholarship, or research. |