UPSI Digital Repository (UDRep)
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Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris |
Kajian ini bertujuan membina model peramalan siri masa ozon (O?), karbon
monoksida (CO) dan sulfur dioksida (SO?) mengikut bulan bagi tahun 2014 dan 2017 di tiga buah
negeri dengan taburan penduduk paling tinggi di Malaysia iaitu Selangor, Johor dan Sabah. Tiga
stesen pencerap dipilih bagi setiap negeri iaitu stesen Shah Alam, Muar dan Kota
Kinabalu. Terdapat tiga objektif utama kajian iaitu untuk mengesan kehadiran dinamik
kalut dalam siri masa O?, CO dan SO?, meramal siri masa O?, CO dan SO? dan
menambahbaik kaedah penentuan nilai jiran terdekat ? bagi proses peramalan. Kaedah Cao dan
plot ruang fasa digunakan dalam mengesan kehadiran dinamik kalut. Dua langkah terlibat dalam
meramal O?, CO dan SO? iaitu pembinaan semula ruang fasa dan proses peramalan. Sebelum melakukan
peramalan, tiga parameter perlu ditentukan iaitu masa tunda ?, matra pembenaman ? dan nilai
jiran terdekat ?. Parameter ? ditentukan melalui kaedah purata maklumat bersama dan penetapan ?
= 1. Parameter ? dikira melalui kaedah Cao. Parameter ? adalah ditentukan melalui
kaedah penambahbaikan menggunakan graf pekali korelasi (??) melawan ?. Nilai ? terbaik
adalah ? yang memberikan ?? maksimum. Melalui kaedah Cao dan plot ruang fasa, keputusan
menunjukkan kehadiran dinamik kalut dalam siri masa yang dikaji. Nilai ??
peramalan dengan pendekatan kalut adalah lebih baik daripada kaedah konvensional regresi linear.
Dapatan turut menunjukkan bahawa peramalan adalah lebih baik dengan menggunakan nilai
? melalui kaedah penambahbaikan. Kesimpulannya, pendekatan kalut telah berjaya meramal siri
masa O?, CO dan SO?. Implikasinya, kajian boleh diperluaskan bagi meramal siri masa
seperti jerebu, nitrogen dioksida, kelajuan angin dan suhu. Kajian ini diharapkan dapat
membantu pihak bertanggungjawab untuk menguruskan tahap kualiti udara
an lebih baik.
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