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Type :final_year_project
Subject :QA Mathematics
Main Author :Siti Nur Khairani Che Humaidi
Title :Peramalan penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia menggunakan model Holt-Winters
Place of Production :Tanjong Malim
Publisher :Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
Year of Publication :2023
Corporate Name :Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
PDF Guest :Click to view PDF file

Abstract : Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
Elektrik merupakan sumber yang penting dalam pembangunan sosial dan ekonomi di seluruh dunia termasuk Malaysia. Penggunaan tenaga elektrik digunakan bagi menggerakkan pelbagai sektor di Malaysia seperti sektor industri, komersial, perlombongan, domestik dan lain lain. Maka, kajian ini dijalankan adalah untuk menganalisis pola bagi penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia dalam pelbagai sektor serta meramalkan nilai penggunaannya pada tahun 2022 sehingga tahun 2024. Analisis pola dan peramalan ini penting untuk mengetahui dengan lebih lanjut mengenai penggunaan tenaga dalam pelbagai sektor di Malaysia sama ada semakin meningkat atau menurun beserta faktor-faktor yang mendorong kepada terjadinya hal tersebut dan berdasarkan keputusan ini ia dapat membantu banyak pihak untuk terus mengekalkan kecekapan penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan statistik deskriptif seperti analisis min dan sisihan piawai manakala model Holt-Winters Multiplicative dipilih bagi membuat peramalan nilai penggunaan elektrik. Analisis data bagi kajian ini menggunakan dua perisian Matematik iaitu Excel Data Solver dan Minitab. Ketepatan ramalan bagi kajian ini diukur dengan menggunakan tiga jenis diagnostik model iaitu Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Standard Deviation (MAD) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Dapatan kajian menunjukkan nilai level adalah 1.00, nilai trend adalah 0.19 dan nilai seasonal adalah 0.21 manakala nilai MAPE adalah 3.2%. Hal ini menunjukkan model Holt-Winters boleh meramalkan nilai penggunaan tenaga elektrik di Malaysia dengan tepat.

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