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Exchange rate effect on gross domestic product in the five founding members of ASEAN

Abstract

This paper concerns with the effect of exchange rate on gross domestic product (GDP) in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Philippines. From theoretical perspective, exchange rate depreciation is a sign of economic failure in developing countries. However national economic perspective shows its merit in the increasing size of output. In this paper analysis, a set of panel data is used in which the time period was from 1980 to 2014 for the exchange rate variable of each member country. For the variable of GDP, the time period was from 1981 to 2015. In the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation, the real exchange rate coefficient had a statistically significant effect on the GDP level in the five member countries. The results showed that exchange rate depreciation would cause an increase in the countries' level of GDP. The implication from this research is that exchange ra.....

Article Published 2017 770 hits Limited

Linkaging the indirect effects of exchange rate to economic growth and poverty through economic performance in developing countries

Lubis, Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali

Abstract

This study examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on economic performance, which indirectly affects economic growth and poverty reduction in 11 developing countries by using annual data during 1980-2016. Three methods of analysis, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) applied for analysing eight models constructed. The nominal exchange rate is the main interest variable in the economic performance model. Foreign direct investment, international reserve, and trade balance are the main interest variables in the economic growth model and poverty reduction model, respectively. By considering the incidence of the structural break, the results of time-series analysis using the ARDL method shows that the nominal exchange rate contributes positively to foreign direct investment in 7 countries. The results also show the nominal exchange rate negative.....

Thesis Published 2020 2546 hits Available

Unraveling the spatiotemporal dynamics of relative humidity in major Saudi Arabian cities: A synergy of climate modeling, regression analysis, and wavelet coherence

Zullyadini A. Rahaman

Abstract

In the rapidly changing climate of arid desert regions, evaluating the comprehensive characteristics of humidity levels is crucial for agricultural, urban, and infrastructural planning, as well as for minimizing potential public health impacts. We investigated variability and trends of humidity levels in major Saudi Arabian cities during 1982–2022, focusing on the influence of meteorological factors such as average, maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, and windspeed. Employing the Probability Density Function and descriptive statistics, variability of climatic factors was analyzed. The Mann–Kendall Test (MKT) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) were employed to identify monthly and annual trends. The magnitude and changing patterns were determined by calculating Sen’s Slope and ITA slope. Findings of the MKT and ITA showed similar trends in humidity levels across all the cities. ITA result revealed that humidity in Riyadh and Taif decreased at a rate of 0.012% and 0.016% pe.....

Article Published 2024 410 hits Available

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