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Simplified search suggestions : Gamal Awadh Ahmed Mohammed

A modified Currency Demand Function and the Malaysian shadow economy: evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach

Abstract

Improved estimates of the Malaysian Shadow Economy (SE), illegal money and corrections to the magnitude of SE using the ARDL technique based on the modified Currency Demand Function Model (CDFM) from 1972 to 2012 are provided in this paper. This study rectifies the failure in previous studies to capture the positive and symmetric relationships between the demand for money and per capita income. The use of the scale of real GDP in the Modified CDFM is necessary methodologically to obtain an accurate estimation of SE. This study combines the demand rate of deposits with circulated money as dependent variable, which is more liquid and thus may end up in SE. It considers inequality of the velocity of money in both economies (SE and the formal economy). The variables of opportunity cost of using money in their ratio level rather than logarithm form are used in the modified CDFM. The size of the SE in Malaysia has been fluctuating and averaged around 42.53% of GDP ..

Article Published 2019 2416 hits Available

Estimating the underground economy, illegal money and tax evasion in Qatar evidence from currency demand function

Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal

Abstract

Purpose – Up to now a country-specific study on Qatar with respect to underground economy, illegal money and tax evasion has not been undertaken. This paper aims to contribute by separately estimating the magnitude of the underground economy in Qatar from 1980 to 2010 using adjusted currency demand function. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses the Zivot–Andrews unit root test for the stationarity analysis and applies the Gregory and Hansen long run cointegrating technique for estimating the underground economy based on the latest form of the currency demand function model. While the general to specific technique is used to estimate the short run error correction model. Findings – The results show that the average size of the underground economy in Qatar is about 17.03 per cent of the official gross domestic products (GDPs). The average level of tax evasion as a per cent of the total non-oil tax revenues is estimated at around 16.50 per cent and is about 2.12 per cent.....

Article Published 2019 1716 hits Available

An econometric analysis of the underground economy and tax evasion in Kuwait

Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal

Abstract

Up to now, no individual study on Kuwait with respect to the underground economy and tax evasion has been conducted using the recent adjusted form of currency demand function model (CDFM) before. This paper estimates the size of underground economy behind tax evasion from 1991: Q1 to 2010: Q4. It applies the Zivot-Andrews (ZA) procedure for the stationarity analysis, and Gregory-Hansen (GH) long run cointegrating technique for estimating the underground economy based on the adjusted currency demand function approach. While the general-to-specific technique is used to estimate the short-run error correction model. Toda-Yamamoto test is also used to explore the causal relationship between the underground economy and the non-oil tax revenues' variable. It finds that the averaged sizes of the underground economy and the tax evasion to the official gross domestic product (GDP) in Kuwait constituted about 24.95%, and 2.83% respectively. ..

Article Published 2020 1777 hits Available

The impact of covid-19 on the Malaysian stock market: evidence from an autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach

Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the domestic and global outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the trading size of the Malaysian stock (MS) market. The theoretical model posits that stock markets are affected by their response to disasters and events that arise in the international or local environments, as well as to several financial factors such as stock volatility and spread bid-ask prices. Using daily time-series data from 27 January to 12 May 2020, this paper utilizes the traditional Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) technique and Zivot and Andrews with structural break' procedures for a stationarity test analysis, while the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is applied according to the trading size of the MS market model. The analysis considered almost all 789 listed companies investing in the main stock market of Malaysia. The results confirmed our hypotheses that both the daily growth in the active domestic and global cases of coronavirus (COVID-19).....

Article Published 2021 1712 hits Available

An analysis of the determinants of money laundering in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal

Abstract

Purpose: It is widely argued that money laundering (ML) is not a new phenomenon and the pervasiveness of ML is associated with some severe economic, social and political costs. Due to the lack of studies on the MLs issue in the UAE, this study aims to examine the determinants of ML in the country between 1975 and 2020. Design/methodology/approach: The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing results demonstrate the presence of long-run relationship between ML and the selected macroeconomics variables. The analysis is validated by the dynamic ordinary least squares, the fully modified ordinary least squares and the canonical co-integration regression estimators. Findings: The estimation result reveals that while the real estate market, outflow of money, arms procurement and size of the underground economy influences the size of ML positively, gold trade, the level of financial development and the size of economic activities are negatively associated with ML, both in the short- and .....

Article Published 2024 1209 hits Available

Analysing factors affecting the industrial production sector in Malaysia: evidence from the bounds testing approach of cointegration

Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to investigate the factors that affect the Malaysian industrial production sector (IPS) by using the ARDL bounds testing methodology. The analysis is conducted by applying the time series data for the 19702020 period. From the ARDL results, all variables significantly influence Malaysian IPS in different manners for both periods; long and short runs, except the financial development (FD) variable, which insignificantly in-fluences IPS. This final result was verified by the ECM estimate, indicating the presence of long-and short-run relationships between IPS and its factors. Although the FD sector does not directly play a significant factor in stimulating Malaysian IPS growth, policymakers must revise their policies to enhance the role of the financial and banking sector in strengthening the IPS performance in the country. This revision can be done by running good financial services to fund and motivate investors to construct new IPS schemes and then .....

Article Published 2023 938 hits Available

Estimating the threshold level of public expenditure and fiscal deficit in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): evidence from Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed

Abstract

This study estimates the threshold level of the relationship between fiscal deficit and public expenditure in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) based on the public expenditure Kuznets curve (PEKC) hypothesis during the 1975-2020 period. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach, the results indicate the existence of an inverted U-shaped PECK. In other words, public expenditure-fiscal deficit relationship exhibits an inverted U-shaped in the long-run, feature with public expenditure ex-panding in the early phases of rising fiscal deficit, and falling in the latter phases. Using the quadratic specification, the threshold of 22.45 percent is obtained for fiscal deficit (as a share of the GDP), and Dh. 6.583 billion for public expenditure. Moreover, the results illustrate that oil price, outflow of money, FDI outflow and interest rate are other important determinants of public expenditure in the country. Based on this evidence, policies aimed at reducing fisca.....

Article Published 2023 725 hits Available

Estimating the magnitude of money laundering in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): evidence from the currency demand approach (CDA)

Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed

Abstract

Purpose: Despite the vulnerability of rapidly developing and emerging market economies, researchers have paid less attention to the determination of the size of money laundering (ML) in these economies, including the United Arab Emirates (the UAE). Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the magnitude of ML in the UAE between 1975 and 2020 based on the currency demand approach (CDA). Design/methodology/approach: The study uses the Gregory–Hansen cointegration technique alongside the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure to estimate the CDA model. Findings: The results illustrate that an amount equivalent to about 19.034% of the GDP is laundered in the UAE between 1975 and 2020, on average, with the value lying between 15.129% and 23.121%. In addition, the results demonstrate the importance of the real estate market, gold trade, remittance channels and the size of the underground economy in facilitating the laundering of illicit funds in the country. Originality/value.....

Article Published 2024 856 hits Available

Oil rent, corruption and economic growth relationship in Nigeria: Evidence from various estimation techniques

Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed

Abstract

Purpose: Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil rent influence Nigeria’s economic performance during the 1996–2021 period. Design/methodology/approach: Various estimation techniques were used. These include the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR) estimators and the Toda–Yamamoto causality. Findings: The bounds testing results provide evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the variables. In addition, the results of the ARDL, DOLS, CCR and FMOLS estimators demonstrate that oil rent and corruption have a significant positive impact on growth. Further, the results indicate that human capital and financial development enhance economic growth, whereas domestic investment and unemployment rates s.....

Article Published 2024 685 hits Available

Asymmetric effect of shadow economy on environmental pollution in egypt: Evidence from bootstrap nardl technique

Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric effect of shadow economy on environmental pollution in Egypt during the 1970 and 2022 period. Using the bootstrap nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds-testing approach, the study presents evidence of nonlinear cointegrating relationship between environmental degradation (carbon emission) and shadow economic activities (alongside globalisation, urbanisation, GDP per capita, and industrial growth). In addition, the results demonstrate that the impact of shadow economy (SE) on environmental pollution (ENV) is nonlinear, with the positive shock in shadow economy promoting environmental degradation and negative shocks promoting environmental quality, both in the short-and long-run. However, the study discovered that the magnitude of the impact of the SE on ENV is larger in the short-run. This is further validated by the dynamic ARDL simulation technique which demonstrates that the immediate effect of the SE on ENV is large. Additionally,.....

Article Published 2024 619 hits Available

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